Les supply chains subissent de nombreuses crises et ceci notamment depuis 2019. La crise de la COVID-19 a impacté de nombreux secteurs. La viabilité de l’ensemble de l’écosystème a été et est toujours nécessaire pour éviter les pénuries. A peine cette crise atténuée, la guerre en Ukraine vient affecter les supply chains. Ces crises et urgences constituent-t-elles des catalyseurs pour le déclenchement d’actions durables ?
L’Ukraine se place au cinquième rang mondial des exportateurs de blé avec 9% du volume échangé, principalement vers l’Egypte, l’Indonésie, le Pakistan, le Bangladesh et le Liban (Observatoire de la complexité économique). Elle exporte également du maïs (15% des exportations mondiales) mais aussi d’autres céréales comme le tournesol qu’elle transforme en huile (44% des exportations mondiales).
Au-delà du blocage actuel des exportations, la guerre engendrera des baisses de récoltes en 2023. L’impossibilité d’exporter et la perspective d’une baisse de la production pour un acteur majeur du secteur a des impacts sur l’ensemble des supply chains agroalimentaires qui sont mondialisées.
Cet exemple montre à quel point les supply chains aujourd’hui sont fragiles et dépendantes de chaque maillon de la chaîne quelle que soit sa localisation dans le monde (Jagtap et al, 2022). Les quantités fournies par les autres producteurs de céréales devraient permettre de répondre à la demande mondiale pour cette année.
Il faut cependant une réorganisation des supply chains pour que les flux soient modifiés et personne n’est en mesure de prédire les conséquences de tels changements à plus long terme. En attendant, sans matières premières, les pays transformateurs ne produisent plus.
La rareté des produits provoque des famines en bout de chaîne et des montées de prix. Les pays en voie de développement ou les personnes vulnérables sont durement touchés. 41% de la farine exportée en Afrique et 55% de celle exportée en Asie proviennent d’Ukraine (Ebrahim, 2022).
Faut-il des événements aussi dramatiques pour initier des actions durables ? Relocaliser les productions, adapter les cultures et les consommations aux conditions locales ? Aider le Soudan et le Nigeria à augmenter leur productivité déjà conséquente, l’Ethiopie et la Turquie à développer leurs cultures : autant de propositions que Bentley (2022) soumet.
En réponse à cette guerre, de nombreuses sanctions sont prises contre la Russie. Ces sanctions ont notamment des impacts sur les supply chains russes. A l’instar de l’Ukraine, la Russie est un exportateur de denrées alimentaires ce qui renforce les pénuries. Mais, elle est également un exportateur d’énergies.
L’Europe est largement dépendante des exportations russes. En Europe, certains pays ont diminué voire souhaitent arrêter leurs importations russes. Pour ce faire, ils doivent trouver soit d’autres fournisseurs soit modifier leurs sources d’énergie. Autre impact, autre réponse ? Cette situation engendre des solutions peu durables : la réouverture de centrales à charbons alors que le changement climatique devrait être la priorité numéro 1. Mais elle est également source de propositions plus durables comme la sobriété énergétique.
L’Europe a par exemple lancé le plan REPowerEU avec un objectif de 45% d’énergies renouvelables pour 2030 et 210 milliards d’investissements. Il est bien évident que tous les continents et tous les pays ne subissent pas les mêmes impacts et n’ont pas les mêmes possibilités de réponses.
Subir à la fois des pénuries de denrées alimentaires par exemple et une inflation sur ces mêmes produits ou sur des sources énergétiques peut s’avérer dramatique pour certains pays. Il faut donc de toute urgence repenser globalement les supply chains pour les rendre plus durables.
Concevoir des supply chains afin de répondre aux objectifs du développement durables en relocalisant, en adaptant les productions aux contraintes locales, en changeant les consommations permettra d’éviter des catastrophes humaines et environnementales lorsqu’elles sont dues à des supply chains non viables sur le long terme.
Pr. Anicia Jaegler
Professeure / Doyenne associée à l’inclusivité à Kedge Business School
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