In the regular containerized line, the surge in freight rates should continue. The approach of the Chinese New Year in the context of the current health crisis does not favor a return to calm of this phenomenon.
The surge in freight rates is still in line with the start of the new year. While the posted price on December 31 was 5.046,66, prices posted 5.109,60 points on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SFCI) on January 7.
Indeed, this barometer, an index which reflects the spot freight rate market, stood at 2.870 points at the start of 2021, at 2.500 at the end of 2020, i.e. 1.500 points more than in 2019 when it only showed 1.022 points.
The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has tripled in one year. It concerns in particular the market of contracts negotiated with shipowners, it grew by 2,6% during the first week of the year, to 3.432,79 points against 3.344,24 points on Friday, December 31, 2021.
The West Coast of the United States is the region of the world that has posted the strongest growth as of January 7 compared to December 31, 2021, followed by Japan, with 1.170,51 points (+ 3,2%), then Southeast Asia, with 1.170,51 points (+ 3,2%) and Europe, with 5.239,46 (+ 2,4%). At 2.940,66 points, Latin America is the only region that has seen a decline in one week (- 1,6%).
"It seems, over the months, increasingly obvious that operators in the container world want to encourage shippers to resort less and less to negotiated contracts and fall back on spot freight rates," said Paul Tourret, director of Isemar.
Overall, the rate hike is therefore powerful and sustainable. The only time it seemed to run out of steam was in mid-November, as Thanksgiving in the United States and Christmas approached. A lull that left some hope in the minds of shippers but which did not last.
Towards an extraordinary Chinese New Year
Currently, with less than three weeks to go before the Lunar New Year period, which will begin on January 31 and end in mid-February, the rate balance desired by shippers is likely to be a long time coming.
The sense of urgency to import items before facing a shortage remains prevalent and thus increases demand.
In the context of Beijing's zero Covid strategy, this annual lull for Asian industry is expected to be irregular again, according to experts.
The fall of the price curve towards a fairer, more equitable level is therefore not yet expected in the medium term. In the coming weeks, the market should stabilise. However, as far as shipowners are concerned, the orders placed will result in a record number of deliveries.
The annual results of shipping companies will once again reflect the exceptional gains made during the financial year just ended.
Results illustrating the constant increase in freight rates and the strong demand they benefit from. A calming accompanied by disorganization with port congestion that has become widespread as well as a shortage of containers.
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