Le rapport sur les perspectives du marché mondial pour le continent africain indique que la demande des compagnies aériennes en Afrique atteindra 1 100 avions pour transporter des passagers et des marchandises d’ici 2040, portant la flotte totale à 1 440 avions, contre seulement 680 avions en 2019.
Durant cette période, la flotte de la région va passer aux types de famille A220, A320neo, 330neo et A350 de nouvelle génération, ce qui se traduira par une hausse significative de l’efficacité et une baisse des émissions de carbone par vol passager.
Cette croissance est confortée par les attentes d’un taux de croissance annuel composé de 2,8 % du PIB jusqu’en 2040, car l’aviation et le tourisme, ainsi que le commerce régional, poursuivent leur domination sur les secteurs de croissance en Afrique et d’encourager la croissance du PIB.
Airbus s’attend à ce que le trafic aérien en Afrique atteigne les niveaux de 2019 entre fin 2023 et début 2025. En somme, les opérations de fret se sont élevées à plus de 9 %, les niveaux d’avant la crise, et ont grimpé jusqu’à plus de 23 %* sur le seul continent africain. Si le fret à destination et en provenance de l’Afrique sera amplifié par 2,5 d’ici 2040, le trafic de passagers à travers le continent devrait plus que doubler (2,3) durant la même période.
Ces anticipations se justifient par le fait que les principaux moteurs de la demande de trafic n’ont pas changé : une croissance économique plus rapide que la moyenne mondiale, une classe et une population en croissance, l’urbanisation, le développement de la classe moyenne.
Toutefois, le potentiel du transport aérien en Afrique reste important en raison de l’infrastructure limitée du transport routier, de l’abondance des ressources naturelles qui facilitent les échanges et des nombreuses opportunités touristiques.
Durant ces dix dernières années, des progrès significatifs sont apportées dans ce secteur impliquant de nombreux pays du continent, notamment la création du Marché Unique Africain du Transport Aérien (SAATM) et la modernisation des flottes aériennes nationales.
À cet effet, des compagnies aériennes comme Ethiopian Airlines, Senegalese Airlines, South African Airways, Air Côte d’Ivoire, EgyptAir, Ugandan Airlines et Air Tanzania exploitent désormais certains des avions les plus modernes et innovants au monde, tels que l’A350, l’A330neo, l’A320neo et A220.
L’aptitude de l’industrie aéronautique à faire la promotion du développement économique sur le continent africain est avérée. L’aviation non seulement maintient la mobilité des personnes, mais favorise aussi l’intégration régionale, crée des emplois et favorise le commerce intérieur, tant entre les pays africains qu’au niveau mondial.
Le secteur, en Afrique, soutient directement plus de 6,2 millions d’emplois et contribue pour plus de 56 milliards de dollars de revenus au PIB régional du continent selon l’Association internationale du transport aérien.
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