Pour trouver de nouveaux approvisionnements, la société de conseil Rystad Energy affirme que les pays européens devront s’orienter vers l’Afrique tandis qu’ils cherchent à casser leur dépendance en gaz russe.
« Selon des prévisions prudentes, l’Afrique devrait atteindre un pic de production de gaz de 470 milliards de mètres cubes (Bcm) d’ici la fin des années 2030, ce qui équivaut à environ 75 % de la quantité de gaz produite par la Russie en 2022 » a déclaré Rystad Energy dans une déclaration récente.
Il ajoute que : « même avec le nombre de projets gaziers en cours de développement ou actuellement retardés, l’Afrique a encore un potentiel de production important. Le continent devrait augmenter sa production de gaz d’environ 260 milliards de m3 en 2022 à 335 milliards de m3 d’ici la fin de la décennie.
Si les opérateurs pétroliers et gaziers décident de faire monter les enchères dans leurs projets gaziers sur le continent, la production de gaz naturel à court et moyen terme de l’Afrique pourrait dépasser les prévisions prudentes ci-dessus ».
Tandis que la Russie a été le principal fournisseur de gaz naturel de l’Europe, avec une moyenne d’environ 62 % des importations totales de gaz sur le continent au cours de la dernière décennie, l’Afrique fut également un « exportateur constant de gaz vers l’Europe », fournissant environ 18 % de ses besoins.
Aujourd’hui, on s’attend à ce que le continent joue un rôle important, parce que « les signaux récents émis par les grandes compagnies pétrolières et gazières telles que BP, Eni, Equinor, Shell, ExxonMobil et Equinor indiquent une mutation de stratégie en faveur de nouveaux investissements en Afrique ».
« La situation géopolitique en Europe modifie le paysage du risque au niveau mondial. Alors que les flux de GNL en provenance des États-Unis sont importants, la demande est beaucoup plus élevée » a déclaré l’analyste Siva Prasad.
Les priorités africaines devront être prises en compte par les importateurs asiatiques et européens lorsqu’ils développeront des projets, car de nombreux producteurs africains se concentrent sur la fourniture d’énergie au niveau local ainsi que sur les marchés intra-africains, tout en approvisionnant les marchés mondiaux.
L’Afrique constitue aujourd’hui une alternative solide pour les marchés européens, après l’interdiction des importations russes. Toutefois il faut souligner que l’infrastructure pipelinière existante entre l’Afrique du Nord et l’Europe et les relations historiques d’approvisionnement en GNL consolide cette option.
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