This is a consequence of the attacks carried out by the Houthis in the Red Sea against merchant ships: rail transport of goods has started again between China and Europe since the start of the year. A revival that benefits China and Russia.

In January, the volume of goods transported by rail between China and Europe jumped by 30% compared to 2023. This is a figure shared by many Western charterers, whether German, Swiss or Dutch. It is also the one given by the best traffic observer, Eurasian Rail Alliance.

This Russian company provides the most precise clue to this new commercial route opened in 2011 as part of the “Silk Roads”. An alternative which has greatly expanded over twelve years. More than 200 European cities are served by this network, from Hamburg to Madrid, via Valenton, in the Paris region.

A faster alternative than bypassing Africa

The journey via the Cape of Good Hope used by cargo ships fleeing the Red Sea can take up to 50 days. By train, it’s on average half as much. Trains connect China to Germany in around ten days.

Rail freight is slightly more expensive than sea freight, but still bearable compared to air freight, which is sometimes used since the Houthis target shipping in the Red Sea. However, volumes remain modest compared to sea freight.

Western sanctions hang over the transport of these goods crossing Russia. Following the invasion of Ukraine, it is effectively prohibited to transport goods by land to Russia and Belarus. But nothing prohibits transiting through these two countries.

Russia and China, big winners

As a precaution, carriers have, until now, avoided this route. In 2023, a good share of China-Europe trains remained at the platform, the volume of goods suddenly plummeted, falling by 50%.

The current increase in traffic is a form of revenge for RZD, the Russian national railway company run by a close friend of Vladimir Putin. It is she who receives the majority of tolls collected on these roads.

Carriers today favor the alternate route of the Trans-Caspian which bypasses Russia via Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Beijing is the other big beneficiary of this increase in traffic on the China-Europe Railway Express. China actually wins on all counts. Because if rail freight with Europe fell in 2023, it on the other hand soared with Russia and overall traffic therefore continued to grow last year.

The return of Westerners established the “Silk Roads” strategy aimed at developing a new commercial network. At a time when passage via the Panama Canal is reduced due to drought, and that of the Suez Canal due to insecurity, the need to expand all land routes appears more urgent than ever.

Dominique Baillard