Rôle du gaz dans le mix énergétique africain : Rystad Energy reste optimiste
Par Ibrahima DIALLO
28 avril 2022 / 08:18

L’Afrique demeure toujours et largement sous-électrifiée par rapport à d’autres régions. À cet effet, le rôle que jouera le gaz pour redresser l’accès à l’énergie et assurer également la sécurité énergétique à travers le continent continuera de croître, selon la société de recherche Rystad Energy.

La société de recherche a exploré comment des facteurs tels que l’augmentation de la population, les activités économiques, les tendances géopolitiques, y compris la guerre russo-ukrainienne et les politiques climatiques mondiales font évoluer le marché africain de l’énergie. C’était lors d’un webinaire organisé par Rystad Energy lundi et intitulé « Comment le mix énergétique évoluera au cours des 30 prochaines années ».

Nivedh Thaikoottathil, analyste de recherche sur les marchés de l’énergie chez Rystad Energy a déclaré que « l’Afrique subsaharienne abrite près des deux tiers de la population mondiale sans accès à l’électricité. La croissance démographique en Afrique est le double du taux de croissance de la population mondiale ».

Par ailleurs il souligne  la nécessité pour le continent d’élargir son portefeuille de production d’électricité et d’accélérer les efforts d’électrification en fonction de l’augmentation rapide de la population. et la demande énergétique.

Carlos Torres Diaz, vice-président principal, responsable de la recherche sur les marchés du gaz et de l’électricité chez Rystad Energy, a ajouté que « le gaz sera utilisé pour répondre à la demande » et continuera à jouer un rôle clé pour fournir de l’énergie de base et soutenir également les énergies renouvelables. En outre, la demande de charbon régresse à mesure que des pays africains, dont le Nigéria et l’Afrique du Sud, ont rejoint la course mondiale à l’action climatique.

Tandis que le Nigeria, la plus grande économie d’Afrique, annonce son plan pour atteindre la neutralité carbone d’ici 2060 et que l’Afrique du Sud élabore actuellement sa politique climatique et sa stratégie de décarbonisation de l’énergie, le gaz devrait continuer à jouer un rôle déterminant dans la diversification et la sécurisation du mix énergétique des pays.

Dans ce sens, Diaz a ajouté : « Nous sommes assez optimistes quant au rôle du gaz, en particulier en Afrique du Nord, où des pays comme l’Algérie et l’Égypte sont déjà bien placés pour développer la production de gaz et intégrer la ressource dans leur mix énergétique ».

Il a déclaré qu’en Afrique de l’Ouest, « le Nigeria a également le potentiel d’étendre son marché du gaz tandis qu’en Afrique de l’Est, des pays comme la Tanzanie et le Kenya sont bien placés pour exploiter les réserves de gaz afin de répondre à la demande énergétique intérieure ». Cependant, il a noté que la production de gaz à grande échelle ne se matérialisera pas en Tanzanie et au Kenya à court ou moyen terme, mais plutôt à long terme.

Pendant ce temps, en Afrique australe, le Mozambique développera son marché du gaz et ses infrastructures pour pouvoir approvisionner les marchés internationaux tels que l’Europe et l’Asie, a ajouté Diaz. Malgré la baisse continue des prix des énergies renouvelables et une augmentation de la pénétration de l’éolien et du solaire, les coûts initiaux associés au déploiement des énergies renouvelables restent un énorme défi pour les économies africaines pour étendre le déploiement des énergies renouvelables.

Rystad Energy prévoit que des investissements massifs pouvant atteindre 10 000 milliards de dollars seront nécessaires pour le développement solaire et jusqu’à 6 000 milliards de dollars pour le développement de l’énergie éolienne.

Cela offre davantage d’opportunités pour une utilisation accrue du gaz à mesure que l’Afrique diversifie son mix énergétique pour résoudre les problèmes de décarbonation et de sécurité énergétique et d’accès.

Analysant le rôle que le gaz africain pourrait jouer pour faire face à la flambée prévue des dépenses énergétiques mondiales à des niveaux record en 2022, en raison des prix élevés de l’énergie des matières premières, Diaz a déclaré que l’Afrique a la possibilité d’aider tout en améliorant la monétisation de ses ressources énergétiques.

Il a ajouté que l’Afrique a déjà commencé à le faire avec l’Égypte, l’Algérie et la République démocratique du Congo, par le biais de sociétés pétrolières et gazières publiques et de ministères de l’énergie, en signant des accords de production et d’exportation de gaz vers l’Europe via l’Italie avec Eni.

En conclusion il annonce que des discussions sont également en cours pour apporter de nouveaux pipelines qui permettraient à l’Afrique d’exporter du gaz vers l’Europe.

 

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  31. FrankAdvap

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  32. FrankAdvap

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