Par Ibrahima DIALLO
15 janvier 2022 / 14:31

Depuis quelques années les découvertes de pétrole et de gaz se multiplient en Afrique subsaharienne. Une manne énergétique qui suscite beaucoup de convoitise depuis lors au moment où certains pays de l’Afrique de l’ouest ont déjà entamé la phase d’exploitation malgré un contexte mondial marqué par la crise due à la pandémie de Covid-19.

C’est notamment le cas du Sénégal qui vient d’abriter le dernier sommet SGBC qui a réuni un grand nombre d’acteurs du secteur, des compagnies, des experts qui, ont saisi l’opportunité pour échanger sur opportunités et les enjeux liés au secteur Oil & Gas.

Membre de la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO), le Sénégal, est sur le point de devenir un pays producteur et exportateur d’hydrocarbures (pétrole et gaz naturel). L’horizon est 2023.

Pour faire le point sur la situation de ce pays au regard des hydrocarbures à l’aube de l’année 2022, Africa Supply Chain a jeté un regard objectif sur les éléments clés dans le processus d’exploitation de cette manne énergétique.

Les projets en cours et  les perspectives d’exploitation pour le Sénégal

Avec les découvertes de pétrole au large de Sangomar en 2014 et de gaz au large de Saint Louis et Cayar en 2016, la politique d’attractivité menée depuis 1998 par l’État du Sénégal a porté ses fruits grâce aux découvertes importantes.

Actuellement, deux projets sont en cours de développement en vue d’une mise en production en 2023 : un projet gazier et un projet pétrolier.

Parmi leurs points communs, ils sont tous les deux offshore (au large des côtes du pays), les découvertes concernées remontent à la même période (2014-2015), celles-ci ont été réalisées par des firmes étrangères, ces entreprises sont américaines ou britanniques et elles ne figurent pas parmi les géants de l’industrie pétrolière.

Ces deux projets permettront au Sénégal de devenir un pays producteur et exportateur de pétrole et de gaz naturel.

Toutefois, on constate deux différences entre ces deux projets, l’une portant sur la taille et l’autre porte sur le fait que le projet gazier implique deux pays, le Sénégal et la Mauritanie, car les découvertes réalisées à partir de 2015 sont situées de part et d’autre de la frontière maritime entre ces deux voisins.

Il faut rappeler que le projet couvre cinq permis, dont deux au large du Sénégal et trois au large de la Mauritanie. Néanmoins, pour le pétrole, les découvertes faites en 2014 ne relèvent que de la souveraineté du Sénégal.

Les acteurs industriels concernés par les projets sont identifiables deux pôles d’activités.

Concernant le projet gazier nommé GTA), le consortium est composé du géant britannique BP, de Kosmos Energy (Etats-Unis) et des sociétés nationales des deux pays concernés, Petrosen (Sénégal) et la Société Mauritanienne des Hydrocarbures (SMH).

Les participations de BP sont estimées à 60% au Sénégal et 62% en Mauritanie alors que ceux de Kosmos représentent respectivement 30% et 28%. Les intérêts de Petrosen au Sénégal et de la SMH en Mauritanie sont de 10% chacune.

Pour le projet pétrolier, la compagnie australienne Woodside Energy détient une participation de 82% en association avec Petrosen (18%). BP et Woodside qui sont les opérateurs de ces deux projets constituent les leaders.

Les prévisions sur les volumes de production sont prometteuses

Si on prend le cas du pétrole :  la production avoisinerait les 100 000 barils par jour en phase de plateau, l’équivalent de 5 millions de tonnes par an. Et pour le gaz, le projet sera réalisé en plusieurs étapes.

Au terme de la première phase, la production de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) sera de 2,5 millions de tonnes par an. Elle pourrait atteindre 10 millions de tonnes/an à terme. 2023 s’annonce riche et prometteuse en terme de revenus pour le secteur des hydrocarbures

Les stratégies adoptées pour la mise en valeur de la production

Les futures productions de pétrole et de gaz naturel auront l’exportation pour débouché principal. Une petite partie de cette production en gaz naturel alimentera le Sénégal et la Mauritanie.

Toutefois, la plus grande partie sera exportée sous forme de GNL transporté par bateau (méthaniers). Le GNL est destiné à la commercialisation par BP Gas Marketing.

Le groupe britannique estime que le projet gazier Sénégal/Mauritanie est très bien placé pour exporter du GNL vers les marchés de l’Europe, de l’Amérique du Sud et de l’Asie.

 BP classe le projet gazier Sénégal- Mauritanie au niveau mondial

Les ressources gazières récupérables sont estimées à environ 420 milliards de mètres cubes, ce qui est déjà très important. Pour mieux s’en rendre compte, on peut comparer ce chiffre à la consommation gazière de l’ensemble du continent africain en 2020.

Celle-ci était de 153 milliards de mètres cubes, selon la BP Statistical Review of World Energy publiée en juin 2021. Le projet pourrait, donc, et en théorie, couvrir toute la consommation gazière de l’Afrique pendant un peu moins de trois ans.

Ces 420 milliards de mètres cubes ne permettent d’avoir qu’une idée partielle du potentiel gazier du projet Sénégal/Mauritanie.

A cet effet, BP n’exclut pas que la zone puisse contenir jusqu’à 2 800 milliards de mètres cubes de gaz naturel. En outre, il faudra plus de missions d’exploration pour confirmer ou infirmer une telle évaluation.

Néanmoins, le potentiel confirmé est suffisant pour lancer un très gros projet gazier. Ce n’est pas pour rien que la troisième plus grande compagnie pétrolière privée dans le monde après Exxon Mobil et Royal Dutch Shell, soit entrée dans ce projet et dirige les opérations.

Donc il n’y a pas de surprise à voir ceux que l’on appelle les Majors montrer leur intérêt pour ces gigantesques projets.

Quoiqu’il en soit, la transition énergétique fera inévitablement des gagnants et des perdants. Et si les hydrocarbures n’ont plus vraiment bonne presse, la découverte de nouvelles réserves continue d’être vécue comme un signe d’espoir pour des pays comme le Sénégal qui aspire au développement.

La gestion transparente et rigoureuse des revenus provenant de la manne énergétique dans un cadre juridique très bien organisé servira de levier fort dans le développement des secteurs prioritaires du PSE tels que la santé l’énergie, l’éducation, l’agriculture, les infrastructures routières et ferroviaires…

Le pétrole et le gaz étant des ressources épuisables une partie de ces revenues devrait être affectées à un fonds intergénérationnel pour assurer la solidarité avec les générations futures à travers l’investissement et l’épargne.

Youssouf B. H SANE

 

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