Le Sénégal ayant retrouvé son dynamisme d’avant crise pourrait bénéficier d’un coup de pouce avec la production d’hydrocarbures en 2023, c’est du moins l’avis du FMI relayé au terme d’une mission récente menée par ses experts.
Les experts ont conclu que la croissance du PIB réel du Sénégal est estimée à 6,1% en 2021, soit un point de plus que ce qui était annoncé en janvier. Un bond en avant qui dépasse toutes les attentes et positionne l’économie sénégalaise sur une trajectoire de croissance similaire à ce qu’elle était avant la pandémie.
De ce fait, l’inflation a pu être contenue autour de 2,2%. Il faut rappeler qu’avant la crise de la Covid-19, la croissance était à 4,4% en 2019 avant de chuter à 1,5% en 2020.
Le Sénégal doit maintenir sa démarche de réformes structurelles pour renforcer sa résilience économique
Le gouvernement a débloqué 64,4 milliards F CFA (104 millions d’euros) pour soutenir le secteur de la santé et mettait en place des mesures d’aide aux ménages les plus fragiles en réglant les factures d’eau, d’électricité et les dépenses alimentaires.
C’était dans le cadre de son plan de crise appelé Force-Covid-19. Une gestion saluée à l’international permettant au Sénégal de se classer deuxième derrière la Nouvelle-Zélande sur 36 pays dans l’indice de réponse globale au COVID-19 de Foreign Policy.
Toutefois, le FMI estime que la production du pétrole et du gaz donnera « un coup de fouet temporaire » à la reprise au cours de la période 2023-2024, avec des projections de croissance atteignant 9,5% en 2023 puis 10,3% en 2024. Et cela même si le Sénégal est sur le point de devenir un pays producteur et exportateur d’hydrocarbures à l’horizon 2023.
Pour renforcer cette résilience économique, le FMI souligne que le Sénégal devra continuer dans sa démarche de réformes structurelles, notamment par la préparation d’un cadre budgétaire régissant l’utilisation des recettes tirées des hydrocarbures, d’une feuille de route pour l’élimination progressive des subventions à l’énergie, par l’amélioration du mécanisme actuel de protection des personnes les plus démunies et enfin, par la mise à jour du cadre juridique des marchés publics afin d’augmenter la fréquence des appels d’offres ouverts et concurrentiels.
L’inquiétude plane sur les perspectives macroéconomiques à cause de la guerre en Ukraine
Le FMI estime cependant que le Sénégal doit faire face à de nombreux défis en 2022, parmi lesquels la guerre entre la Russie et l’Ukraine qui assombrit les perspectives macroéconomiques.
Dans le communiqué de presse du FMI il est noté que « la hausse des prix mondiaux des produits alimentaires et de l’énergie s’ajoute aux défis actuels de la politique économique, y compris les séquelles de la pandémie, l’insécurité régionale et l’augmentation des revendications sociales à l’approche des élections parlementaires de juillet.
Tous ces éléments accroissent les risques de ralentissement de la croissance économique et se traduiront probablement par une aggravation des pressions inflationnistes et une augmentation considérable des dépenses publiques ».
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