Pétrole: face à la menace qui plane sur la Chine, l’OPEP+ dans un attentisme intenable
Par Ibrahima DIALLO
5 mai 2022 / 14:39

Se réunissant ce jeudi, les pays de l’Opep+ doivent une nouvelle fois s’accorder d’une forte augmentation de leur production de pétrole, consolidés par les menaces qui planent sur la demande sur fond de restrictions anti-Covid en Chine.

La guerre en Ukraine continue aussi de susciter des inquiétudes pour l’offre, qui se sont multipliées avec l’annonce d’un projet d’embargo européen sur le pétrole russe. Les cours se ont connu des flambées importantes ce mercredi, le baril de Brent de la mer du Nord bouclant au-dessus de 110 dollars, son plus haut niveau depuis deux semaines et demi.

Toutefois, selon les analystes, cette nouvelle hausse n’a pas de quoi secouer les treize membres de l’Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole (Opep), menés par Ryad, et leurs dix partenaires conduits par Moscou (Opep+).

Walid Koudmani, analyste chez XTB, explique à AFP en invoquant «les perspectives de baisse de la demande du fait des confinements observés en Chine», « qu’il est probable que l’Opep+ s’en tienne à son plan malgré l’instabilité persistante liée au conflit russo-ukrainien».

Comme les mois précédents, le cartel va donc probablement ouvrir les vannes à hauteur de 432.000 barils par jour pour juin, une stratégie initiée au printemps 2021 quand l’économie retrouvait des couleurs après les coupes drastiques de brut imposées par le choc de la pandémie. Les débats de l’alliance débuteront par des discussions techniques au sein du Comité ministériel conjoint de suivi (JMMC) avant la rencontre plénière par visioconférence.

 Des inquiétudes concernant la Chine

Largement épargnée durant ces dernières périodes, la Chine fait face à ces dernières semaines à sa pire hausse épidémique depuis le printemps 2020, qui a mis à mal sa stratégie zéro Covid.

Pékin a décidé hier de procéder à la fermeture des dizaines de stations de métro. De ce fait,  ses habitants redoutent désormais que leur ville ne soit confinée, comme c’est le cas à Shanghai, la plus grande ville de Chine avec 25 millions d’habitants où la plupart des cas sont enregistrés.

«La baisse de l’activité en Chine est certainement un facteur qui justifiera un statu quo de l’Opep+, en dépit de la pression internationale pour augmenter l’offre devant la crise énergétique actuelle», a déclaré Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyste de la banque Swissquote, interrogée par l’AFP.

Fawad Razaqzada, analyste chez City Index et Forex.com estime dans une note que « c’est une raison pour rester prudent ». Quant aux nouvelles sanctions économiques en projet contre la Russie, elles ne devraient pas redistribuer les cartes pour le moment.

Par ailleurs, sa présidente Ursula von der Leyen au Parlement européen annonce pour fin 2022 que « la Commission préconise dans son sixième paquet de sanctions « une interdiction de tout le pétrole russe, brut et raffiné, transporté par mer et par oléoduc ».

«Attentisme intenable»

Une perspective qui menace l’offre sur un marché déjà tendu. Alors que l’unanimité des 27 est impérative, la Hongrie, très dépendante des livraisons russes, a opté pour un rejet du projet «dans sa forme actuelle». Si toutefois l’Union «parvient à convaincre ses membres de ratifier le plan (…), cela aura un impact conséquent sur les exportations de pétrole russe», met en garde Fawad Razaqzada.

Mais là encore, l’alliance Opep+, soucieuse de rester unie et de ne pas frustrer Moscou, «ne sauvera certainement pas la mise», lance Ipek Ozkardeskaya. D’ailleurs elle rappelle que pour le marché « le cartel a clairement signifié que la guerre en Ukraine n’était pas cause d’inquiétude».

Cet attentisme «devient de plus en plus intenable» et «contraire à la mission» de régulation du marché de cette alliance forgée en 2016 » selon Stephen Innes, analyste chez Spi Asset Management.

C’est «la raison pour laquelle ils sont constamment critiqués pour leur retard et leur manque technique de réaction aux développements récents des marchés mondiaux», assène-t-il.

Néanmoins l’Opep+ détient-elle vraiment la clé du problème? Entre absence d’investissements dans les infrastructures pétrolières chez certains pays membres ou problèmes opérationnels, le cartel est régulièrement voué à l’échec pour atteindre ses quotas de production.

 

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