Dans un contexte sécuritaire dégradé, dont le délai de “quatre à six mois” fixé par le président Emmanuel Macron semble irréaliste, le retrait militaire français du Mali annoncé jeudi pose un défi logistique gigantesque aux armées dans un contexte sécuritaire tendu.
Présentement, environ 2.400 militaires français sont déployés au Mali, sur un total de 4.600 dans la bande saharo-sahélienne.
Le désengagement de ces hommes, des matériels déployés, dont des centaines de véhicules blindés, et le démantèlement des bases représente quelque 6.000 containers.
Ce jeudi, le porte-parole de l’état-major, le colonel Pascal Ianni, évoquant lui aussi un délai “d’environ six mois” avait soutenu : « Quitter ce pays, où la France est engagée dans la lutte antijihadiste depuis 2013, implique “une manœuvre complète que nous allons mener à notre rythme de manière coordonnée avec Sahéliens et Européens ».
Toutefois ce grand chantier logistique, qui mobilise depuis des semaines le Centre de planification et de conduite des opérations (CPCO), va s’exécuter dans un contexte sécuritaire et politique extrêmement compliqué , dans un pays dirigé par une junte hostile à la France et en proie à de tenaces violences jihadistes.
Le haut gradé souligne « qu’il va surtout s’agir de se coordonner avec les forces armées maliennes sur les mouvements et actions durant toute cette phase de réarticulation”, pendant laquelle “nous allons continuer nos actions contre les groupes terroristes”, qui chercheront des opportunités d’actions ».
le facteur climatique ne va faciliter l’opération avec le début de la saison des pluies en avril-mai au Mali, propre à transformer le paysage semi-désertique du nord-est du pays en désert de boue collante.
Selon trois sources militaires françaises consultées par l’AFP vu cet environnement hostile, et avec les moyens logistiques dont dispose la force Barkhane, il faudrait non pas six mois, mais entre 12 et 18 mois pour boucler ce retrait.
Les armées ont déjà connu un tour de chauffe au Mali avec le récent départ de leurs trois emprises les plus au nord du pays: Kidal, Tessalit et Tombouctou.
Cette manœuvre s’est allongée de fin août à décembre regroupant 400 logisticiens envoyés en renfort, pour acheminer par voie aérienne et terrestre les matériels vers la base militaire de Gao, qui constitue la plus grosse emprise française au Mali, transformée en “hub” logistique.
Ces trois bases, qui hébergeaient moins de 500 soldats au total, ont représenté un volume de 500 containers alors que les équipements destinés à retourner en France ont été acheminés vers les ports d’Abidjan en Côte d’Ivoire, Cotonou au Bénin et Douala au Cameroun.
Reste le problème de l’acheminement par voie terrestre vers ces ports. Courant novembre, un convoi militaire français reliant Abidjan à Gao a été arrêté par les barrages d’une foule en colère, au Burkina Faso puis au Niger, alors que le sentiment antifrançais gagne du terrain dans la région.
le capitaine François-Xavier commandant du convoi, témoignait à Gao auprès de l’AFP « qu’ils avaient des pancartes +A bas la France+, ils nous jetaient des pierres ».
De fait, le transport aérien pourrait être privilégié pour atténuer ces risques. Or si la France dispose désormais en propre d’avions de transport stratégique (A400M, A330 MRTT), sa flotte risque de ne pas suffire, exigeant d’envisager le recours à des affréteurs privés qui pourraient considérablement saler la facture de ce déménagement voulu rapide par l’Elysée.
Néanmoins, Il faudra enfin trancher la délicate question de la rétrocession des emprises françaises aux forces maliennes.
Une démarche compliquée, à l’heure d’une rupture consommé entre Paris et Bamako et du déploiement dans le pays des mercenaires du groupe russe Wagner. Le jeudi le président français Emmanuel Macron dénonçait avec force les dénégations de la junte malienne.
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