Le 2 Mars dernier à l’Assemblée Générale des Nations Unies lors de l’adoption d’une résolution déplorant l’agression commise par la Russie contre l’Ukraine, 24 pays Africains ont préféré ne pas condamner la Russie en s’abstenant de voter pour ou contre l’agression Russe.
Selon les experts en diplomatie, ce choix s’explique par la forte influence que la Russie exerce aujourd’hui en Afrique notamment à travers le déploiement des militaires Russes sur plusieurs fronts tentant d’endiguer les menaces djihadistes ou la présence des groupes rebelles qui terrifient les populations, ce que les forces Européennes et Onusiennes n’arrivent toujours pas à endiguer depuis plusieurs années pour ne citer que cet exemple.
L’on se demande si nos dirigeants ont-ils oublié que plusieurs pays Africains importent massivement des produits agricoles notamment le blé de la Russie et de l’Ukraine.
En effet, l’Afrique c’est 23 millions de tonnes de blé produit chaque année contre 40 millions de tonnes importés. À l’heure où l’invasion russe fragilise les marchés agricoles avec une volatilité de la tonne de blé atteignant 400 Euros, les chaînes d’approvisionnement africaines se retrouvent une fois encore fragilisées après la crise sanitaire de la covid-19. Pour cause, le blé russe et ukrainien qui représente au total 30% du blé mondial est exporté à plus de 50% vers l’Afrique.
Si les crises quelles qu’elles soient semblent touchés le plus souvent les chaînes d’approvisionnement subsahariennes africaines, cette fois-ci celles de l’Afrique du Nord sont plus en difficulté.
Ceci est dû à une forte dépendance de ces pays des produits agricoles russes et ukrainiens. C’est l’exemple de l’Égypte qui a acheté de l’extérieur en 2021 treize millions de tonnes de blé dont 85% provenaient de la Russie et de l’Ukraine.
Au Caire, la pénurie de pain s’annonce déjà même si le pays dispose encore de 4 mois de stock de blé. Même scénario en Algérie qui s’est lui aussi tourné vers l’importation de blé russe et ukrainien après avoir tourné le dos au blé français dont le pays dépendait auparavant.
Au Maroc et en Tunisie, on comptait sur une production locale qui permettrait de pouvoir gérer les crises de cette envergure mais une sévère période de sécheresse ainsi qu’une grave performance agricole semblent respectivement déjoué les prévisions pour ces deux pays.
L’Afrique Subsaharienne qui importe également le blé russe notamment le Nigeria au premier rang avec 2113 Tonnes lors de la campagne agricole 2020-2021 sera très certainement impacté par la guerre en Ukraine.
C’est l’exemple du Burkina-Faso qui a déjà multiplié par deux ses achats sur le premier semestre de la campagne agricole actuelle par rapport à la campagne précédente. Au Sénégal, le prix du pain est passé depuis quelques mois de 150 F CFA à 175 F CFA conséquence visible de l’indisponibilité du blé.
Même si la plupart des pays Africains ont déclaré avoir des réserves de blé de 5 à 6 mois, les spécialistes du Programme Alimentaire Mondial (PAM) craignent que le conflit entre la Russie et l’Ukraine cause une famine en Afrique.
Quant aux chaînes d’approvisionnement africaines, elles peuvent être réorganisé pour se retourner vers les pays Européens notamment la France et l’Allemagne qui produisent plus qu’ils ne consomment.
On pourrait assister à un meilleur scénario dans les années à venir si les bailleurs de fond innovent leur politique de développement agricole pour ce continent qui dispose 60% des réserves foncières des terres arables dans le monde qui serviraient à une production agricole intensive et auto-suffisante pour non seulement les africains mais aussi d’autres continent. La conséquence de cette politique serait tout simplement une réorganisation des chaînes d’approvisionnement intra-africaine.
Kévin Akpali
Les questions que je me pose sont les suivantes : le manque de blé à lui seul pourra t il occasionné la famine en Afrique ?
Pourquoi ne pas aussi s’orienter sur d’autres produits ?
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