Les projets pétro-gaziers auront un impact positif pour l’économie sénégalaise d’après l’étude d’impact des revenus issus de ces ressources naturelles réalisée par la Direction de la prévision et des études économiques (Dpee).
La DPEE a annoncé dans cette étude que les prévisions sur le moyen terme, qui intègrent la production future de pétrole et de gaz dans la branche des activités extractives, prévoient un impact conséquent de l’exploitation sur l’évolution du Pib par rapport à la situation tendancielle.
Ces projets vont avoir un effet direct sur la croissance économique qui va passer de 11,5% en 2023 contre 5,5% en 2022, traduisant une progression de 5,7 points.
La DPEE informe que ce changement dans la dynamique économique aurait des effets considérables sur les finances publiques en termes d’accroissement des recettes».
Cette embellie de notre économie set imputable du fait de la contribution de la valeur ajoutée de la production des ressources conséquentes dans la formation du Pib soit plus 602 milliards, en prévision.
Durant les premières années d’exploitation (2023-2026), le taux de croissance moyen du Pib serait de 7,9%, soit une croissance assez confortable pour inciter une restructuration de l’économie vers une dynamique d’émergence plus poussée.
La note de la Dpee révèle également que « l’exploitation devrait être plus dynamique à la faveur d’un cours du baril sur le marché international plus favorable.
Dans cette dynamique, les capacités de production d’hydrocarbures vont croitre de près de 30% par rapport au scénario de base. Avec une hausse de 1,7 point de pourcentage par rapport au scénario de base, les résultats sur la croissance du Pib réel seraient ainsi nettement meilleurs ».
Toutefois, la croissance est projetée à 13,2% en 2023 et devrait se maintenir sur un sentier favorable, profitant de cette manne de ressource pétrolière et gazière. En moyenne sur la période 2023-2026, la croissance serait attendue à 8,4% contre 7,9% dans le scénario de base.
A noter néanmoins que la note a fait des réserves basées sur la volatilité des cours du baril de l’or noir en précisant : «en relation avec un cours du baril moins favorable, l’exploitation serait moins propice, du fait de l’ampleur des charges à recouvrir ».
A ce niveau, l’exploitation pourrait baisser en deçà de 70% des prévisions d’exploitation dans le scénario de base. En conséquence, l’impact sur le Pib serait moins important, notamment dès la première d’exploitation.
En réalité, la croissance du Pib réel serait attendue à 9,8%, soit un gain de 3,9 points de croissance par rapport à la situation tendancielle hors pétrole. La croissance du Pib est projetée à 7,3%»en moyenne sur la période 2023-2026.
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