Récemment installé aux États-Unis, Ovrsea interpelle les chargeurs sur les conséquences logistiques du conflit en Ukraine. En effet, le commissionnaire digital, filiale du groupe Bolloré, estime que les taux de fret aériens et maritimes qui sont déjà au plus haut risquent de se maintenir voire s’accentuer à nouveau.
Le conflit en Ukraine a des dommages collatéraux sur les chaînes logistiques internationales non négligeables notamment, l’annulation ou l’allongement des vols de plusieurs heures, la flambée des carburants, la suppression d’escales ainsi que la réduction des capacités d’accueil.
Pour Arthur Barillas, PDG et co-fondateur du commissionnaire digital Ovrsea, ils vont conserver les taux de fret aériens et maritimes à des niveaux élevés : « il ne faut pas s’attendre à des baisses de prix mais à de nouvelles hausses sans doute ».
D’autant que sur l’axe eurasiatique, l’alternative ferroviaire par la route principale, via la Russie et la Biélorussie, est aujourd’hui fermée. « Les transitaires et les transporteurs s’en sont retirés », citant le cas du danois Maersk et du néerlandais RailBridgeCargo. Cette route, dite par le Nord, a procédé au traitement de 80 % des 1,6 M EVP transportés l’an passé par le rail entre l’Asie et l’Europe.
Limitation de la voie des airs
Le renvoi de ces flux à bord de navires et d’avions, déjà pleins dans le sens Asie-Chine-Europe, pourrait alimenter davantage le déséquilibre entre l’offre et la demande.
En aérien, l’offre se réduit en outre. Plusieurs compagnies russes, très présentes dans le cargo, « ont stoppé ou ralenti sensiblement leurs activités à l’image d’AirBridge Cargo et de Volga Dnepr », explique Arthur Barillas. D’autres comme les transporteurs ANA, JAL ou Lufthansa annoncent une baisse de leurs offres entre l’Asie et l’Europe.
Concernant les vols en activité, la déviation de la Russie allonge les temps de trajet avec une double conséquence opérationnelle : immobiliser davantage les capacités disponibles et obliger les avions à emporter plus de kérosène réduisant leur charge utile.
L’offre de fret aérien entre l’Europe et l’Asie du Nord-Est se serait contractée de 20 % au cours des dix derniers jours. Très peu de place serait disponible à bord des avions avant deux semaines au départ de Chine vers l’Europe, où les prix s’élèveraient jusqu’à 10 €/kg.
Retour des « BAF » élevées
L’allongement des plans des vols a des conséquences a également des conséquences sur la consommation en kérosène des avions à un moment où le prix des carburants s’envole. Cette croissance touche tous les modes et toutes les routes internationales.
En maritime, où les taux de fret sur les liaisons Est-Ouest sont au plus haut depuis deux ans, l’augmentation de soutes est déjà perceptible via la hausse des surcharges « BAF ».
Il s’agit entre autre d’un ajustement appliqué aux tarifs maritimes par les armements pour tenir compte des variations des carburants. Sur l’axe Chine-Europe par exemple, cette hausse des BAF s’ajoute à des taux de fret qui se négocient actuellement autour de 15 000 USD pour un conteneur 40 pieds » pour « Bunker adjustment factor ».
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