In the transport sector, two approaches must be considered. Last-mile transport is the most expensive and complex, as it is carried out in urban areas with strong delivery constraints. Long-distance transport generally corresponds to the transport of goods from a production site to a distribution site. The constraints are different and the choice of transport mode is not based on the same criteria for these two types of transport. Let's focus on long-distance transport.
Trucks are the main mode of transport used for European journeys. Very flexible, they are the only unimodal mode of transport. All other transport requires a multimodal organization. However, if the break-bulk costs are not too high, multimodal options can be a competitive alternative to trucks even over short distances (Zgouc et al, 2019).
In addition, the truck contributes to three road problems: congestion, pollution and accidents. The European Commission therefore recommends converting 30% of road traffic by 2030 and 50% by 2050 to other modes of transport.
For longer journeys, the plane and the boat had a quasi-monopoly. Indeed, maritime transport represents 80% of the world's goods transport. The plane represents only 1% but 35% of the value of the goods transported (e-tfl.com).
China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative has changed the game. This new Silk Road is a set of maritime and railway routes. 64 Asian, Middle Eastern, European and African countries are stakeholders.
By 2030, China will have invested 26 trillion dollars in this project, which is justified by the growth of Chinese global exports. In 2021, they increased by another 30% (oms.org). From China to Finland, from China to Italy, from China to Germany, or even England or Spain, the possible use of the train calls into question the use of the plane or the boat.
Modes of transport are compared according to four criteria (Neal and Koo, 2020): price, time, frequency and reliability. Air travel has a higher cost than other modes of transport, especially as quantities and weight increase. It is also much more polluting in a world looking for less carbon-emitting solutions.
For 1% of transport share, the plane represents 11% of carbon emissions due to transport while the boat for 80% of transport share emits 3% of emissions. Regarding the time, the plane is obviously faster followed by the train and the boat. It is clear that in case of emergency, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic and the transport of medical equipment, air transport is preferred for long distances.
In fact, it takes about 15 days by train and 30 days by boat under the Chinese initiative (Yang et al, 2020). Using the Arctic route, which has become passable due to the warming of the Arctic polar zone, would reduce the time taken for delivery by sea.
But the risks in terms of images in the event of an oil spill are significant and navigation conditions are very difficult or even impossible depending on the season (Rigot-Müller et al, 2022). This solution, in fact, is not or is rarely chosen.
Another criterion is the type of products. Oil and cereals are mainly transported by sea and could be transported by train. Air travel is not an option but is on the contrary for high value-added products. In terms of capacity, both train and ship have a much greater capacity than air travel.
But these different criteria are not the only ones to take into account. The reliability of transport can be affected by external elements. Different crises, health or geopolitical, or events have or have had repercussions on the roads used by the transport of goods, regardless of the mode of transport.
The COVID-19 crisis, by stopping passenger transport, has particularly impacted air transport of goods; the war in Ukraine, air routes with the closure of many airspaces but also maritime traffic in the Black Sea; the blocking of the Suez Canal by the container ship Ever Given has completely blocked maritime traffic transiting through the Canal.
Finally, the sector is evolving rapidly with increasing traffic. Transport prices are increasing, particularly due to the price of energy but also the price of labour. There is a shortage of truck drivers, both male and female.
Containers are a rare commodity. Considering that they represent 90% of global freight traffic, their scarcity has a strong impact on prices. Transport, which emits 25% of global carbon emissions, is also under pressure to reduce its impact on climate change.
In this context, which mode of transport will be favoured? Which one will innovate the most and the fastest? But is greener transport the solution: a zero-emission plane? a zero-emission boat? Can we really be carbon neutral? Shouldn't we rather review our consumption patterns? our production locations? The question deserves to be asked.
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