The WTO forecasts a 0,2% decline in global trade in 2025, compared to an initially expected growth of 2,7%. North America will be hardest hit, while Africa could benefit slightly.

Global merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0,2% in 2025, according to the report. “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” WTO published on April 16. Initially, an increase of 2,7% was planned.

If trade tensions worsen, the decline could reach -1,5%. This deterioration is explained by the increase in customs tariffs, particularly in the trade conflict between the United States and China.

Experts warn of the risk of reactivation of customs tariffs, currently suspended for 90 days by the United States (except for China). These measures could reduce global trade growth by 0,6 percentage points. "Trade policy uncertainty has a significant moderating effect on trade flows," explains Ralph Ossa, chief economist of the WTO.

North America would suffer the largest declines: -12,6% for exports and -9,6% for imports. Conversely, Asia and Europe would maintain slight growth. Some African countries could benefit from the tensions, with a 0,6% increase in exports and a 6,5% increase in imports, thanks to their similarities with China in textiles and electronics.

The services sector, although spared from tariffs, is also expected to slow, with global growth estimated at 4% in 2025. The fallout from the decline in trade in goods will affect transport, tourism, and intermediate services. Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean will see their services exports decline.