Airbus reveals unserved air routes in Africa, presenting opportunities to strengthen transport, boost trade and drive economic growth.

Airbus has published a study identifying key unserved routes to boost air transport in Africa, identifying new untapped routes to meet growing demand and supporting regional economic development by facilitating travel and trade.

The study highlights potential routes for new service, based on analyses of traffic data, travel trends and passenger needs.

The study, titled “Exploring the horizons: A study of unserved air routes to, from and within Africa,” is a study by Airbus and AviaDev that focuses on city pairs that can support direct flights but do not have them.

The study uses O&D (Origin and Destination) traffic data and flight schedules to identify these routes. The study used traffic data and flight schedules covering the period from December 2022 to November 2023.

The study found that some of the most attractive unserved routes are concentrated in a few key African cities, including Lagos, Cape Town, Nairobi, Dakar and Douala. Examples of unserved intra-African routes identified include:

• Dakar (Senegal) – Libreville (Gabon): This intra-African route has shown significant potential with a compound annual growth of nearly 12% between 2015 and 2019. A direct link could improve the quality of service and stimulate traffic.
• Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire) – Douala (Cameroon): This route shares similarities with Dakar-Libreville and could also benefit from a direct service.
• Lagos (Nigeria) – New York (United States): Traffic between these two cities showed growth before the pandemic, and a resumption of direct flights could quickly recover lost traffic.
• Nairobi (Kenya) – Washington (United States): This route presents technical challenges due to the altitude of Nairobi airport, but it has significant potential due to the diplomatic and economic ties between the two cities.

At the level of unserved intercontinental routes, the study identifies:

Lagos – New York, Lagos – Toronto, Lagos – Houston, Harare – London, Johannesburg – Mumbai, Entebbe – London, Lagos – Manchester, Nairobi – Washington, Durban – London and Cape Town – Brussels.

The study concludes that several unserved routes in Africa have significant potential to become viable with direct flights. Recommendations include:

• Dakar – Libreville: A direct service could begin with single-aisle aircraft of 100 to 140 seats, with around 4 flights per week.
• Abidjan – Douala: A direct service could be launched with single-aisle aircraft of 100 to 120 seats, with up to 3 flights per week.
• Lagos – New York: The resumption of direct flights could support 5 flights per week with 250-seat wide-body aircraft.
• Nairobi – Washington: A direct service could be viable with 250-seat wide-body aircraft, with 5 flights per week.

  The study highlights the importance of stimulating traffic and optimising aircraft capacity to ensure the profitability of new routes. It also recommends close collaboration between airlines, airports and local authorities to maximise economic benefits and improve connectivity in Africa.

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