After two months of sharp increases, global air freight demand grew by 3% in September 2025, according to data from Xeneta. This slowdown reflects a gradual return to normal, despite the support of e-commerce and climate disruptions in Asia.

The air freight sector had benefited during the summer from an anticipation effect linked to commercial uncertainties. In September, this dynamic diminished with the end of frontloading and some stabilization on the major corridors. Capacity kept pace with demand, but the load factor fell to 59% down one point over a year.

Trade between Asia and Europe, however, continued to drive the market. The rise of Chinese e-commerce, redirected towards European consumers, supported an increase in 4% volumes on this axis.

Pre-routing before Golden Week and the suspension of Sino-European rail links at the Polish border have accentuated this modal shift towards air travel. Conversely, flows between Europe and the United States have contracted as a result of American tariff decisions, which have disrupted traditional seasonality.

Weather conditions also weighed on the month's performance. Super Typhoon Ragasa disrupted several hubs in East Asia, limiting growth to 3% over a year. Despite this slowdown, Xeneta expects annual growth of between 3 and 4% a level considered better than expected at the start of the year.

The price trend, however, remains downward. The average yield was $2,54 per kilo, down by 4% year-on-year and down for the fifth consecutive month.

Transatlantic and transpacific routes are the most affected, while Asia-Europe routes are holding up better thanks to the peak shipping season. Faced with this volatility, more and more players are opting for six-month contracts to secure their costs before the start of the next annual cycle.

Author: The Editorial Staff